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Russia’s Disintegration Unlikely, But Descent Into Chaos And Civil War Isn’t – OpEd … Neo-Nazi group march in Wisconsin with swastika flags … How Shakespeare’s first folio was put together – ‘They LOST half of his plays!’ … US business elite welcomes Xi Jinping with standing ovation – Financial Times

 Michael Novakhov’s favorite articles on Inoreader

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The Russian Federation is unlikely to disintegrate the way the USSR did, Andrey Yakovlev says. The non-Russian autonomies simply don’t occupy the position now that the union republics did in 1991, and the Russian regions are certain that they would lose more than gain if they sought to go their own way.

But, the economist formerly at HSE but now at Harvard says, the possibility that Russia could descend into chaos and civil war as parts of the elite struggle over yet another redivision of property are all too real (reforum.io/blog/2023/11/12/perehod-k-novoj-modeli-neizbezhno-budet-sopryazhyon-s-kompromissami/).

Unfortunately, Yakovlev says, the US and the EU have not figured out what to do with Russia even if it loses in Ukraine and have not recognized that if things are left where they are today, Moscow will seek to take revenge and because of its nuclear stockpile will have more freedom of action than anyone wants to move against other targets, including Europe.

Moreover, up to now, the West has failed to understand two key realities: the future will be made at least in part by those who are part of the Putin regime, and the opposition to them will not have a chance to succeed unless there are clear signals from the West about what they and Russia will gain if the war in Ukraine ends and Moscow changes course.

“If Western politicians do not begin to think about what will happen next, then there will be no reason to count on good variants in Russia,” Yakovlev argues. And the longer the West puts off such a formulation of a strategic vision for Rusia, “the greater the probability of very bad scenarios regarding security in Europe.”

Everyone needs to understand that “in the Russian elite are not only sane people but also players like the late Prigozhin;” and the numbers of the latter may increase in the event of chaos or a radical shift without clear preparation by the West. Moscow may try to salvage the situation by moving in the direction of North Korea, but that only delays but does not prevent chaos.

According to Yakovlev, the Russian economy has sufficient resources to last for another two years before some kind of crash; but he says that he has a bad feeling that “the cut-off point will take place in March 2024. Before the elections, there likely won’t be any obvious repressions against the current elite or any military escalation. But after that …”

After the voting, with what he believes is a new mandate and expects to face declining Western support for Ukraine, Putin will try to take Kyiv and use a new mobilization at home to do it, the analyst says, steps that will likely be accompanied by significant changes in the elite and the redistribution of property.

Unless the West gives a clear signal to the “sane” part of the Russian elite that it will lift sanctions if the latter take certain steps, the chances that they will move against Putin and his plans will remain small, putting Russia on course to repression and then collapse and violence, Yakovlev continues.

What is especially important here is that Yakovlev says what few others do: the threat that Russia will fall into chaos and civil war will come not from national or regional secession efforts but because of the inherent problems of the Putin system and conflicts within it over power and property.  

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Selected Articles – Michael Novakhov’s favorite articles on Inoreader – The News And Times

The Russian Federation is unlikely to disintegrate the way the USSR did, Andrey Yakovlev says. The non-Russian autonomies simply don’t occupy the position now that the union republics did in 1991, and the Russian regions are certain that they would lose more than gain if they sought to go their own way. But, the economist formerly at HSE but now at…
posted now via eurasiareview.com
 
Russia’s Disintegration Unlikely, But Descent Into Chaos And Civil …  Eurasia Review
Civilians leave Al-Shifa hospital  NBC News
Israel-Palestine war: Europe is following the US into another …  Middle East Eye
Ukrainian forces push Russians back 3-8 km from the Dnipro River …  Euromaidan Press

On November 19, President of the Republic of Iraq Abdullatif Jamal Rashid arrived on an official visit to the Republic of Azerbaijan
posted 50m ago via Report News Agency
 
Russian general critical of army found dead, with his wife  South China Morning Post
Ukraine’s first advance in months: Pushed Russia from Dnipro river  Hindustan Times
Egypt’s border crossing opens to let a trickle of desperately needed …  News10NBC
ISW: Ukrainian forces repel Russian assault near Avdiivka  Euromaidan Press
 

 Michael Novakhov’s favorite articles on InoreaderIDF lookouts said they saw unusual activity along the Gaza border before the October 7 attack, but their commanders told them to stop bothering them, report saysposted at 11:49:12 UTC by Lindsay Dodgson via Business InsiderPalestinians take down the fence on the Israel-Gaza border and enter Israel after…
posted 44m ago by Michael Novakhov (Mike Nova) via The News And Times
 

Around 20 people carried Nazi flags and walked up to the Wisconsin State Capitol in Madison, Wisconsin, before heading to James Madison Park for a neo-Nazi rally.
posted 44m ago via JPost.com – Homepage
 

Представители прокуратур из Австрии, Аргентины, Германии, США и Франции прибыли в эти выходные в Израиль с целью содействия в расследовании атаки боевиков ХАМАС из сектора Газа, совершенной 7 октября.
posted 42m ago via EADaily:все новости
 
No deal reached yet on hostage release: Netanyahu  CGTN
posted 42m ago via “Netanyahu” – Google News
 
Wishful thinking. Dreams of Russia’s ‘break up’ could turn into a …  Новая газета. Европа
Israel-Hamas war live updates: Hostage deal close but not finalized, sources say  NBC News
posted 41m ago via “israel” – Google News
 
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A U.N. team enters Gaza’s Al-Shifa Hospital and finds a “death zone”  NPR32 babies in critical condition are among the patients left at Gaza’s main hospital, UN team says  Yahoo NewsWHO leads very high-risk joint humanitarian mission to Al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza  World Health OrganizationGaza: The rights of the injured  EL PAÍS USAIsrael-Hamas War:…
 
US Forces Attacked 151 Times in Iraq, Syria During Biden Presidency  Voice of America – VOA News
posted 40m ago via “Syria” – Google News
 
Surge in Attacks Against US Bases in Eastern Syria Linked to Israel …  The Media Line
posted 40m ago via “Syria” – Google News
 
International Court of Justice orders provisional measures against Azerbaijan  ARMENPRESS
 
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Путин примет участие в виртуальном саммите G20  Ведомости

GBNews published this video item, entitled … Read More
posted 39m ago by News Desk via The Global Herald
 
US business elite welcomes Xi Jinping with standing ovation  Financial Times
NPR News: 11-19-2023 7AM EST
posted 39m ago by NPR via NPR: Hourly News Summary Podcast
 

Could Israel have waited longer to start its war in Gaza? Subscribe to GZERO on YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/@GZEROMedia Sign up for GZERO Daily (free newsletter on global politics): https://rebrand.ly/gzeronewsletter On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer asked former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak if Israel had fallen into a trap in the way it’s…
posted 39m ago by GZERO Media via GZERO Media
 
Al-Qassam Brigades says it eliminated 6 Israeli soldiers in Gaza city  Anadolu Agency
posted 38m ago via “Gaza” – Google News
 
Ankara’s interests in military jets not limited to Eurofighter, says …  Anadolu Agency
 

Family and friends already held burial ceremony last week for girl whose twin brother, aunt and grandfather were also murdered in Hamas attack The post Remains of 12-year-old Oct. 7 victim Liel Hetzroni identified appeared first on The Times of Israel.
posted 32m ago via The Times of Israel
 

In ‘brigade-level raids’ in refugee camps near Jenin, Nablus, IDF detains suspects, seizes weapons caches, explosives, firearms; 200 killed in West Bank since October 7 The post West Bank: 2 Palestinians reported killed, 38 arrested in overnight operations appeared first on The Times of Israel.
posted 32m ago via The Times of Israel
 
Alleged ‘two Michaels’ spy imprisoned in China to sue Canadian government  The Telegraph
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The Biden-Harris campaign hits GOP presidential candidate Nikki Haley’s abortion stance, claiming she’s “no moderate.” “She’s [Haley] an anti-abortion MAGA extremist who wants to rip away women’s freedoms …,” the campaign said in a statement.https://t.co/6qHKgZekz0 pic.twitter.com/tMktpKb0s7— The Hill (@thehill) November 19, 2023
posted 37m ago by @thehill via The Hill (@thehill) / Twitter
 
By Nidal al-Mughrabi and James Mackenzie GAZA/JERUSALEM (Reuters) -Hamas militants battled Israeli forces trying to push into Gaza’s largest refugee camp on Sunday and Israeli air strikes to the south
posted 36m ago by Reuters via ThePrint
 

ЦАХАЛ сообщил жителям Дараджа, Туффы, Шеджайи и Джабалии, что они должны эвакуироваться из этих районов к 16 часам воскресенья. Решение было обосновано тем, что “оставаться там опасно”, сообщает NBC News. The post Израиль призвал жителей четырех районов Газы покинуть их к 16 часам first appeared on The News And Times – thenewsandtimes.com.
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posted 33m ago via Top Stories – Google News
 
Donald Trump Demands Extreme Loyalty: It’s Starting to Backfire  Rolling Stone
posted 32m ago via “trumpland” – Google News
 

Palestinians take down the fence on the Israel-Gaza border and enter Israel after clashes and attacks in Gaza City, Gaza on October 07, 2023.Anadolu Agency/Getty ImagesIDF lookouts warned their commanders about activity along the Gaza border, according to reports.They were ignored, told to stop bothering them, and even threatened, N12 reported.One lookout…
posted 1h ago by Lindsay Dodgson via Business Insider
 

“We don’t have any family in the business, and we kind of need a path for succession.”
posted 1h ago by Fox Business via NY Post: NYPD Blotter
 
King’s Speech 2023: Foreign affairs and defence – House of Lords …  House of Lords Library
Hikmet Hajiyev – assistant for the foreign policy of the president of Azerbaijan in his interview with euroreporter.co said that Azerbaijan wants regional security, according to Azerbaijan in Focus, reporting Turan. “We want to build a new regional security architecture based on justice, recognizing each other’s territorial integrity and sovereignty,…
posted 1h ago by Mike Nova via The South Caucasus News
 
In a statement made on November 18 during the autumn session of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly in Yerevan, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan revealed that Armenia and Azerbaijan have reached a consensus on the fundamental principles of a peace agreement, according to Azerbaijan in Focus, reporting Turan. Pashinyan acknowledged both positive…
posted 1h ago by Mike Nova via The South Caucasus News
 
‘Waves’ of Russian drones attack Kyiv for second night in a row  The Star Kenya
posted 1h ago via “kyiv” – Google News
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