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Open Source Counterintelligence Analysis from Michael Novakhov: @UKikaski: Possible S-400 complex destroyed in Crimea by AFU ATACMS Strike … @mikenov: Israel and Ukraine: joined at the FUNDING, now … Fiona Hill: Ukraine’s Fate Now Linked to the Middle East’s … @SpiesVespers: OTD Oct 30, 1927 #Yuri_Nosenko born. #KGB defector falsely accused as a Soviet plant by #Anatoliy_Golitsyn. Harshly treated, later cleared.

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WASHINGTON — 

Fiona Hill is worried.

The onetime Russia advisor to then-President Trump fears that support for Ukraine is gradually eroding, encouraging Russian President Vladimir Putin to try to wait the West out.

“Putin feels everything is trending in his favor,” she warns.

But she’s worried about much more than that, beginning with Israel’s war in Gaza, which has made the world more dangerous.

The two conflicts aren’t directly linked, but each is likely to affect the other.

“These could be global-system-shifting wars, something like World War I and World War II, which reflected and produced major changes in the international order,” she said. “In a sense, the Hamas attack on Israel was a kind of Pearl Harbor moment. It opened a second front.”

Most of the world’s major powers have lined up in two opposing coalitions: the United States and its allies on one side; Russia, China and Iran on the other. One of those coalitions is supporting both Ukraine and Israel. The other is not.

I met with Hill last week to hear her thoughts on the spreading global crisis.

It was a sobering tour d’horizon, as seen through a Russia-watcher’s eyes.

Let’s begin with Ukraine, which has been fighting for more than a year to secure its independence in the face of a Russian invasion.

The United States and its European allies have provided billions of dollars in weapons and financial aid to help stop Putin’s drive to reconquer the Russian Empire.

But Ukraine’s progress has been maddeningly slow, prompting impatience not only in the U.S., but in Europe as well.

“We put too much weight on Ukraine’s counteroffensive,” Hill said. “This is going to be a long war. Putin thinks we will give up if he holds on long enough.”

The Russian leader is also “clearly waiting for 2024” and the prospect that Trump could return to the White House and cut off aid to Ukraine, she added.

An early test will come in the next few weeks, when Congress considers Biden’s request for $61 billion in new aid for Ukraine. The last time the House of Representatives faced such a request, 93 Republicans voted against it, including the newly elected speaker of the House, Mike Johnson (R-La.).

Now add the second front in the global conflict: Gaza.

“This helps Putin,” Hill said. “It’s going to distract the United States and European supporters of Ukraine.”

It isn’t clear whether any of the weapons the United States is rushing to Israel will come from supplies that had been earmarked for Ukraine. But Biden’s request for $14 billion in aid to Israel makes the burden on Congress and taxpayers look heavier.

The next piece on the global chessboard is China, which Biden — like Trump before him — has identified as the United States’ main competitor.

Under President Xi Jinping, China has strengthened its alliance with Russia.

“China doesn’t want to be stranded alone with no other major power as an ally,” Hill explained. “Xi needs Putin and Putin needs Xi.”

But that creates a problem for the United States, she said: “We’re not going to have any hope of curtailing Russia’s options and getting the Middle East to calm down if we have a super-antagonistic relationship with China.”

She thinks the Biden administration should try a “Nixon to China” effort to reduce animosity, referring to President Nixon‘s opening of a relationship with Mao Zedong in 1972.

Finally, Hill is worried about one more country: the United States, which is heading toward a presidential election as polarized as ever.

Putin isn’t the only world leader waiting to see how 2024 turns out.

“If the rest of the world thinks every time a new government comes along, we are going to tear up agreements we just made, we won’t be looked at as a very reliable partner,” she warned.

Is there anything encouraging in this picture?

Hill has been traveling around the United States for much of the last year, and she says her audiences are “thirsty” for an end to national discord.

In appearances on college campuses and with civic groups, she discusses Russia and foreign policy. But she also talks about her history as a coal miner’s daughter who grew up in poverty in the north of England, but, thanks to hard work and lucky breaks, earned a doctorate at Harvard, became a U.S. citizen and landed a job in the White House.

That personal story has made her passionate about promoting social mobility as the cure for the disaffection that helped elect Trump in 2016.

Along the way, she has noticed something about her adopted country that has surprised her: “We don’t have a unifying national figure who everyone respects.”

In less polarized eras, she noted, the president often enjoyed that stature, but that hasn’t been true for at least a decade.

“Who speaks to the whole country now?” she asked. “Taylor Swift? Arnold Schwarzenegger?”

It’s a good question.

Is there anyone who commands broad bipartisan respect who can knit a fractured country together?

At first, Taylor Swift struck me as a little far-fetched. But on second thought, we could do a lot worse.

Full transcript of “Face the Nation,” Oct. 29. 2023  CBS News

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As Israel weighs a possible ground offensive in Gaza, there are valid reasons to worry about new fronts in the war—and a wider conflict—in the Middle East. And as the United States expends time, money, arms, and political capital on containing that crisis, it gives actors in other arenas an opportunity to further their own ends. Chief among those actors must be Russian President Vladimir Putin, who celebrated his birthday on Oct. 7, right as Hamas launched its brutal and shocking assault on Israel.

Ravi Agrawal is the editor in chief of Foreign Policy. Twitter: @RaviReports

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Bursts of light fly over a city skyline at night, showing the path of a missile fired from Israel's Iron Dome air-defense system as it intercepts another missile. Bursts of light fly over a city skyline at night, showing the path of a missile fired from Israel’s Iron Dome air-defense system as it intercepts another missile.

Abed al-Hafeez Nofal, the Palestinian ambassador to Russia, and exiled Hamas deputy leader Mousa Abu Marzook give a press conference along with other representatives of Palestinian political parties and movements in Moscow on Jan. 17, 2017. Abed al-Hafeez Nofal, the Palestinian ambassador to Russia, and exiled Hamas deputy leader Mousa Abu Marzook give a press conference along with other representatives of Palestinian political parties and movements in Moscow on Jan. 17, 2017.

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A satellite image shows smoke billowing from the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet after a Ukrainian missile strike in Sevastopol, Crimea. A satellite image shows smoke billowing from the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet after a Ukrainian missile strike in Sevastopol, Crimea.

Aid convoy trucks are seen waiting to cross at Gaza's Rafah border on Oct. 17, 2023 in North Sinai, Egypt. Aid convoy trucks are seen waiting to cross at Gaza’s Rafah border on Oct. 17, 2023 in North Sinai, Egypt.

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Activists of the Dal Khalsa Sikh organization, a pro-Khalistan group, stage a demonstration at the Golden Temple in Amritsar on Sept. 29, 2023. Activists of the Dal Khalsa Sikh organization, a pro-Khalistan group, stage a demonstration at the Golden Temple in Amritsar on Sept. 29, 2023.

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On this “Face the Nation” broadcast, moderated by Margaret Brennan: 

  • National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan
  • General Joseph Votel   
  • Sen. J.D. Vance, Republican of Ohio   
  • Robert Mardini, director-general of the International Committee of Red Cross  

Click here to browse full transcripts of “Fac the Nation.”    

MARGARET BRENNAN: Good morning, and welcome to Face the Nation. I’m Margaret Brennan in Washington.

There has been a significant escalation in the fighting between Israel and Hamas in the last 48 hours. In Gaza, the humanitarian situation has deteriorated even further. There has been no pause to let aid trucks in days. Some communication systems have been restored today following a blackout that started on Friday.

Meanwhile, there have been more attacks from Iran-backed militia groups targeting U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria. The Eisenhower carrier strike group has crossed into the Mediterranean Sea, where it will join with other U.S. Navy assets already in the region.

We begin this morning in Tel Aviv with our Charlie D’Agata …  

 

@SpiesVespers: https://t.co/LI4J3NeJ3J
https://t.co/LI4J3NeJ3J— SPIES&VESPERS (@SpiesVespers) October 30, 2023
 

@SpiesVespers: OTD Oct 30, 1942 Brits on HMS Petard board U-559 and capture four rotor Enigma machine. Folks at Bletchley pleased. https://t.co/RL8PGN7Seo
OTD Oct 30, 1942 Brits on HMS Petard board U-559 and capture four rotor Enigma machine. Folks at Bletchley pleased. pic.twitter.com/RL8PGN7Seo— SPIES&VESPERS (@SpiesVespers) October 30, 2023
 
@SpiesVespers: OTD Oct 30, 1938 Panic and publicity erupt around Orson Welles’s The War of the Worlds. https://t.co/5FGAhA3CSw
OTD Oct 30, 1938 Panic and publicity erupt around Orson Welles’s The War of the Worlds. pic.twitter.com/5FGAhA3CSw— SPIES&VESPERS (@SpiesVespers) October 30, 2023
 
@SpiesVespers: #OTD Oct 30, 1941: President Roosevelt approves $1 billion in Lend-Lease loans to the Soviet Union. American taxpayers sent to the Soviet people, from 1941 to 1945, $11.3 billion worth of war supplies. That is $146 billion in contemporary dollars.
#OTD Oct 30, 1941: President Roosevelt approves $1 billion in Lend-Lease loans to the Soviet Union. American taxpayers sent to the Soviet people, from 1941 to 1945, $11.3 billion worth of war supplies. That is $146 billion in contemporary dollars.— SPIES&VESPERS (@SpiesVespers) October 30, 2023
 
@SpiesVespers: OTD Oct 30, 1944 #Samuel_Loring_Morison born. Grandson of famed naval historian arrested for sending classified satellite images to #Jane’s.
OTD Oct 30, 1944 #Samuel_Loring_Morison born. Grandson of famed naval historian arrested for sending classified satellite images to #Jane’s.— SPIES&VESPERS (@SpiesVespers) October 30, 2023
 

@SpiesVespers: OTD Oct 30,1943 #SOE hero #Vera_Leigh, #fashion_designer/#milliner turned spy, arrested by Gestapo in Paris at cafe Place des Ternes. https://t.co/hKg0cb4vnO
OTD Oct 30,1943 #SOE hero #Vera_Leigh, #fashion_designer/#milliner turned spy, arrested by Gestapo in Paris at cafe Place des Ternes. pic.twitter.com/hKg0cb4vnO— SPIES&VESPERS (@SpiesVespers) October 30, 2023
 

@SpiesVespers: OTD Oct 30, 1927 #Yuri_Nosenko born.#KGB defector falsely accused as a Soviet plant by #Anatoliy_Golitsyn. Harshly treated, later cleared. https://t.co/SlYG6p2xJW
OTD Oct 30, 1927 #Yuri_Nosenko born.#KGB defector falsely accused as a Soviet plant by #Anatoliy_Golitsyn. Harshly treated, later cleared. pic.twitter.com/SlYG6p2xJW— SPIES&VESPERS (@SpiesVespers) October 30, 2023
 

@SpiesVespers: OTD Oct 30,1735 #John_Adams born. 2nd US President operated spy network from C.F. Hoochera, bookseller in Paris. Alias Fernando San Raymond https://t.co/jhwkbXqkmx
OTD Oct 30,1735 #John_Adams born. 2nd US President operated spy network from C.F. Hoochera, bookseller in Paris. Alias Fernando San Raymond pic.twitter.com/jhwkbXqkmx— SPIES&VESPERS (@SpiesVespers) October 30, 2023
 

@UKikaski: There are preliminary reports that the AFU has conducted a missile strike (Storm Shadow?) against military targets in Crimea circa 0945Z in October 30, 2023. #OSINT #Counteroffensive #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWar #Ukraine https://t.co/2lPeBIq2o4
There are preliminary reports that the AFU has conducted a missile strike (Storm Shadow?) against military targets in Crimea circa 0945Z in October 30, 2023.#OSINT #Counteroffensive #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWar #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/2lPeBIq2o4— OSINT (Uri) 🇺🇦 (@UKikaski) October 30, 2023
 

@UKikaski: Update: The foci of the air alerts appears to be in and around #Sevastopol. #OSINT #Counteroffensive #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWar #Ukraine https://t.co/vI8hoP55TY
Update: The foci of the air alerts appears to be in and around #Sevastopol.#OSINT #Counteroffensive #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWar #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/vI8hoP55TY— OSINT (Uri) 🇺🇦 (@UKikaski) October 30, 2023
 

@UKikaski: I want to separately post this announcement from AFU StatCom with official confirmation that ATACMS destroyed at least one highly vaunted Russian S-400 Air Defense System in the Luhansk region. This is not gloating about how Russian mil-tech sucks, OK! This is purely for OSINT… https://t.co/OVSSOU4IYY
I want to separately post this announcement from AFU StatCom with official confirmation that ATACMS destroyed at least one highly vaunted Russian S-400 Air Defense System in the Luhansk region. This is not gloating about how Russian mil-tech sucks, OK! This is purely for OSINT… pic.twitter.com/OVSSOU4IYY— OSINT (Uri) 🇺🇦 (@UKikaski) October 30, 2023…
 
@UKikaski: There are currently air alarms across Crimea and the Crimean Bridge is closed. The AFU is striking while the iron is hot! #OSINT #Counteroffensive #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWar #Ukraine
There are currently air alarms across Crimea and the Crimean Bridge is closed.The AFU is striking while the iron is hot!#OSINT #Counteroffensive #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWar #Ukraine— OSINT (Uri) 🇺🇦 (@UKikaski) October 30, 2023
 

@UKikaski: Possible S-400 complex destroyed in Crimea by AFU ATACMS Strike AFU Strategic Command: This night, the Armed Forces successfully hit a strategic object of the air defense system in the temporarily occupied Crimea. Also, on October 25, the Armed Forces destroyed the S-400… https://t.co/UI7dwBy6Om
Possible S-400 complex destroyed in Crimea by AFU ATACMS StrikeAFU Strategic Command: This night, the Armed Forces successfully hit a strategic object of the air defense system in the temporarily occupied Crimea.Also, on October 25, the Armed Forces destroyed the S-400… pic.twitter.com/UI7dwBy6Om— OSINT (Uri) 🇺🇦 (@UKikaski) October 30, 2023
 
@UKikaski: Russian Media: The plane from Tel-a-Viv was carrying children being treated for cancer in Israel The crowd at the Makhachkala airport throws various objects at the security forces, detentions are underway. Makhachkala Airport will not accept planes until the morning of… https://t.co/VXPeNrdGWK
Russian Media: The plane from Tel-a-Viv was carrying children being treated for cancer in Israel The crowd at the Makhachkala airport throws various objects at the security forces, detentions are underway.Makhachkala Airport will not accept planes until the morning of… pic.twitter.com/VXPeNrdGWK— OSINT (Uri) 🇺🇦 (@UKikaski) October 30, 2023
 
@UKikaski: Russian propagandists are claiming the takeover of a Russian airport by a radical mob searching for Jews was the result of a Ukrainian misinformation operation. Apparently, the Ukrainian SBU was able to radicalize and mobilize a group of normally peaceful innocent Russians by… https://t.co/cIUQwXqMGX
Russian propagandists are claiming the takeover of a Russian airport by a radical mob searching for Jews was the result of a Ukrainian misinformation operation. Apparently, the Ukrainian SBU was able to radicalize and mobilize a group of normally peaceful innocent Russians by… pic.twitter.com/cIUQwXqMGX— OSINT (Uri) 🇺🇦 (@UKikaski) October 29, 2023
 

@TOIAlerts: RT by @mikenov: Live update: Family of German-Israeli Shani Louk, thought to be captive, informed she is dead https://t.co/dzGd12qdRa . Clic…
Live update: Family of German-Israeli Shani Louk, thought to be captive, informed she is dead https://t.co/dzGd12qdRa . Click to read ⬇️— TOI ALERTS (@TOIAlerts) October 30, 2023
 

@sentdefender: RT by @mikenov: According to Global News, Canadian Special Forces including Elements of Joint Task Force 2 (JTF2) are currently on the Gr…
According to Global News, Canadian Special Forces including Elements of Joint Task Force 2 (JTF2) are currently on the Ground in Israel to assist in the Security of the Canadian Embassy and its Staff as well as to provide an Advisory Role to the Israel Defense Force alongside… pic.twitter.com/CbUcDTcXd4— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 29, 2023…
 
@visegrad24: RT by @mikenov: A Jewish man checked into the Flamingo Hotel in Khasavyurt, Dagestan in Russia today. Quickly a crowd gathered in front of…
A Jewish man checked into the Flamingo Hotel in Khasavyurt, Dagestan in Russia today.Quickly a crowd gathered in front of the hotel and started shouting:”Show your face, or we will come into the hotel and pull you out of there!”This is how a lynch mob looks like pic.twitter.com/zfWcgwkdD9— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) October 29, 2023
 

@dw_russian: RT by @mikenov: Президент Украины прокомментировал беспорядки в Дагестане. Зеленский напомнил, что Путин и Лавров в последний год позволяли…
Президент Украины прокомментировал беспорядки в Дагестане. Зеленский напомнил, что Путин и Лавров в последний год позволяли себе антисемитские высказывания. “Российский антисемитизм и ненависть к другим нациям системны и глубоко укоренены”, – заявил украинский президент pic.twitter.com/dvpYASPiDF— DW на русском (@dw_russian) October 30, 2023
 

@mikenov: Israel and Ukraine: joined at the FUNDING, now
Israel and Ukraine: joined at the FUNDING, now – GS https://t.co/ytAvLYIu2H pic.twitter.com/5kQlD1nzoT— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) October 30, 2023
 
Selected Articles – The News And Times
Путин внимательно следит за ситуацией в Махачкале – URA.RU
Путин внимательно следит за ситуацией в Махачкале  URA.RU
 
Путин собирает экстренное совещание с министрами, силовиками и совбезом – URA.RU
Путин собирает экстренное совещание с министрами, силовиками и совбезом  URA.RU
 
Путин 30 октября проведет большое совещание по следам событий в Махачкале – Вечерняя Москва
Путин 30 октября проведет большое совещание по следам событий в Махачкале  Вечерняя Москва
 
Путин в понедельник проведет большое совещание в связи с событиями в Дагестане – Интерфакс
Путин в понедельник проведет большое совещание в связи с событиями в Дагестане  Интерфакс
 
Full transcript of “Face the Nation,” Oct. 29. 2023 – CBS News
Full transcript of “Face the Nation,” Oct. 29. 2023  CBS News
 

Fiona Hill: Ukraine’s Fate Now Linked to the Middle East’s
No audio? Hover over the video player, and tap the Click to Unmute button. Already an FP Subscriber? Login On-demand recordings of FP Live conversations are available to FP subscribers. Subscribe Now As Israel weighs a possible ground offensive in Gaza, there are valid reasons to worry about new fronts in the war—and a…
 

Full transcript of “Face the Nation,” Oct. 29. 2023
On this “Face the Nation” broadcast, moderated by Margaret Brennan: National Security Adviser Jake SullivanGeneral Joseph Votel   Sen. J.D. Vance, Republican of Ohio   Robert Mardini, director-general of the International Committee of Red Cross  Click here to browse full transcripts of “Fac the Nation.”    MARGARET BRENNAN: Good morning, and welcome…
 
Zelensky Hit With Double Blow from European Ally – Newsweek
Zelensky Hit With Double Blow from European Ally  Newsweek
 
Speaker Johnson: US ‘can’t allow Vladimir Putin to prevail in Ukraine’ – Yahoo News
Speaker Johnson: US ‘can’t allow Vladimir Putin to prevail in Ukraine’  Yahoo News
 
The deepening Middle East crisis – The Express Tribune
The deepening Middle East crisis  The Express Tribune
 
Фактор газа. Как Путин и ХАМАС угрожают Европе энергетическим кризисом этой зимой – BBC.com
Фактор газа. Как Путин и ХАМАС угрожают Европе энергетическим кризисом этой зимой  BBC.com
 
Putin Renews Support For Independent Palestinian State’ Amid Israel-Hamas War – Hindustan Times
Putin Renews Support For Independent Palestinian State’ Amid Israel-Hamas War  Hindustan Times
 
The deepening Middle East crisis – The Express Tribune
The deepening Middle East crisis  The Express Tribune
 
U.S. providing missiles to Ukraine ‘a mistake,’ Putin says; China and Russia ‘exchange views’ on Israel-Hamas conflict – CNBC
U.S. providing missiles to Ukraine ‘a mistake,’ Putin says; China and Russia ‘exchange views’ on Israel-Hamas conflict  CNBC
 
Than 20 Injured During Unrest At Airport In Russia’s Daghestan After Plane From Israel Arrives – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty
Than 20 Injured During Unrest At Airport In Russia’s Daghestan After Plane From Israel Arrives  Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty
 
Russia-Ukraine war live: Moscow open to conditional talks on post … – The Guardian
Russia-Ukraine war live: Moscow open to conditional talks on post …  The Guardian
 
Putin ally Lukashenko calls for ceasefire in ‘stalemate’ Ukraine war – The Independent
Putin ally Lukashenko calls for ceasefire in ‘stalemate’ Ukraine war  The Independent
 
Wagner fractures in Syria, Libya amid conflict with Russia’s Defense … – Al-Monitor
Wagner fractures in Syria, Libya amid conflict with Russia’s Defense …  Al-Monitor
 
Israel Gives Putin a Sharp Lesson in Military Mobilization – Newsweek
Israel Gives Putin a Sharp Lesson in Military Mobilization  Newsweek
 
Путин похвалил Украину за «трансформацию» – URA.RU
Путин похвалил Украину за «трансформацию»  URA.RU
 
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